TRENDING REAL ESTATE NEWS_________________
Arizona Housing Market Overview
In January 2024, home prices in Arizona were up 6.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $433,200. On average, the number of homes sold was up 1.5% year over year and there were 5,780 homes sold in January this year, up 5,693 homes sold in January last year. The median days on the market was 60 days, down 11 year over year.
In January 2024, there were 32,604 homes for sale in Arizona, down 4.9% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 10,301 and up 15.5% year over year. The average months of supply is 4 months, down year over year.
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MARKET UPDATE_______________________
The Spring Housing Season is Upon Us
What’s Hot and What’s Not in Greater Phoenix
For Buyers:
“That is one good thing about this world… there are always sure to be more Springs.” ~Lucy Maude Montgomery
Spring is peak home buying season in Greater Phoenix. March is the 2nd most popular month for new listings historically (the most popular is January), and the beginning of a 4-month long closing season that lasts until June. Supply is up 14% over last year, still 31% below normal, but 16,886 active listings feels like an avalanche compared to 2 years ago when there were only 4,400 to choose from.
Higher mortgage rates continue to keep buyer competition lower than normal, but even mild declines in the rate have resulted in a boost in weekly accepted contracts. Closings over asking price have edged up seasonally to 17% of March sales so far, but the majority of sales are negotiated down by an average of 2.1% below list.
Builders have been ramping up new single family home permits over the past 7 months, up 32% since June 2023. Over the last 3 months, 73% of new home sales closed have involved builder incentives paid to the buyer, with at least 50% paying $11,500 or more. These incentives typically go towards buying down the mortgage rate and saving the buyer $100’s on their monthly payments.
Median Sales Prices
Those who have been keeping these updates over the past year have probably noticed that the median sales price has barely moved for 10 months. Starting at $440,000 from June-July 2023, stagnating at $435,000 from September-December, dropping to $430,000 from January-February 2024, and now back up to $441,000 in March. While the current appreciation rate from last March measures +5.8%, over the next 2 months this will start to move closer to 3%, which is in line with the rate of inflation.
This 10-month stagnation in price, which has endured erratic mortgage rates ranging from 7-8%, has allowed some breathing room for annual incomes to catch up to prices. While low affordability rates are leading negative headlines this month, they are largely based on 2021 median family income from the U.S. Census, which doesn’t reflect the influx of higher paying jobs, inbound migration fueled by the “work from home movement”, and private sector income growth experienced in Greater Phoenix in 2022 and 2023. Updated income reports combined with an expected mild decline in rates this year provide a reasonable expectation that affordability is set to improve. In short, don’t listen to affordability reports that say the majority of homes are not affordable to the masses. You only need to find the one home that’s affordable to you. Don’t give up.
For Sellers:
Spring is statistically the best time to be a seller in Greater Phoenix as buyer activity closes in on its seasonal peak from April through May before slowing down from June through December. This season some areas and price points have been heating up more than others compared to last year, but heat is not all about demand because it’s difficult to increase sales without supply for sale.
For example, areas with the highest percentage increase in contracts over the past 2 months happen to be on the edges of the Valley, such as Black Canyon City, Carefree/Cave Creek, Rio Verde, Sun Lakes, Wittmann, El Mirage, and Avondale. However, with the exception of Avondale, none of these areas feel particularly hot to active sellers because there’s more competing inventory to accommodate the increase in demand.
When supply is taken into account, the hottest areas of Greater Phoenix where supply isn’t quite sufficient for Spring demand gravitate to the south. Namely Avondale, Tolleson, South Phoenix, Ahwatukee, Chandler, Gilbert, and San Tan Valley. While median prices in these areas are still flat, reasonably-priced sellers are selling 1-2 weeks faster than the current 4-week median time frame.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2024 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
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FOR THE HOME_______________________
Ranch Style is the Most Popular Home Style in Phoenix
The octagonal home is the most popular style in the United States — but what about in Phoenix?
Using Zillow filters, American Home Shield (AHS) looked at listings associated with certain architectural styles in each state and major city. Then AHX analyzed the daily listing views for homes associated with each style.
Nationwide, octagonal homes earn a median of 56 views per day, more than any other style on the AHS list. Octagon style was followed by stick style with 51.1 views and ranch style with 49.3 views to round out the top three. Following in order:
- Neo-Mediterranean 43.5 views
- Shingle style 41.5 views
- Dutch colonial 31.6 views
- Cape Cod 30.7 views
- Prairie style 23.2 views
- Townhome style 21.3 views
- Mid-century modern 20.1 views
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LOCAL ADVENTURE_______________________
The Best Places for Easter Activities in Scottsdale
Decadent brunches, egg hunts and pictures with the Easter Bunny to family-friendly events and activities! We’ve rounded up the top things to do this Easter weekend in Scottsdale for your entertainment.
Please note that reservations may be required and often fill up quickly. Please contact the businesses directly for more information.
Scottsdale’s chefs are dishing up decadent Easter brunches and multi-course prix fixe meals fit for the grandest celebrations! The annual Easter Brunch at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess is a special treat. Selections from all four of the resort’s signature restaurants will be available. For the kids: the Alice in Wonderland Easter Egg Hunt Adventure! Over at Hash Kitchen, kids can chow down on treats like Banana Split Brioche or Bread Pudding French Toast Sticks. Meanwhile adults can check out the 50-ingredient Build-Your-Own Bloody Mary Bar.
Prix fixe feasts for this year include elegant three-course options at several spots including:
See something that interests you in the March 2024 Newsletter? Contact me and we can check it out together!
Feel free to call me directly at 602-791-0091.
